If you are invested in the stock market, there is a really great guy I've been listening to, named Gary Kaltbaum. He's a financial planner with a radio talk show and is also a guest on Fox Business news. He's been right all along with the stock market - got out into cash when the market was at 14000, now of course it's gone into the 7000's. Here's the link to his brilliant podcast.
http://www.businesstalkradio.net/weekday_host/Archives/gk.shtml
The night of October 5 my daughter got up for the first time in months in the middle of the night. I happened to be in the middle of a dream. In my dream, houses were burning (people couldn't sell them so they were setting them on fire) and God warned me the stock market was going to go to 5000. It was the most real dream I had ever had in my life and freaked me out. I told my husband about it in the morning and he thought I was nuts when I told him we need to cash out of all our holdings.
"This is your investing strategy? Sell in a down market because you had a dream last night?" my hubby said. "I am learning so much about you I wish I had known before. But I'm not going to get divorced over this so do what you want."
That Monday, I got us out of quite a bit of stuff, though I wish I had gotten us out of everything now, mainly because I have no stomach for it. When I get emotional about things I can't eat. By the end of that week my pants were falling off. I was nervous as hell making the phone calls to all the mutual fund brokers on a down day. One of the fund people told me not to cash out that Monday, to wait till there was an up day, but I went ahead with the order. Now that I think about it, I should sue him for offering me unsolicited advice. I think it's against the law.
Within a couple weeks the market started to go up again and I felt like an idiot. However, I still believe in my dream and God warning me the market is going to the 5000's. I know it sounds incredibly hokey and like I'm a crazy woman. I haven't had a dream like this before. Even if my "dream" is wrong, the best lesson I've learned from this is sometimes we just have to go with our hunches. However, I think my dream is about as scientific as some of the other bozos on CNBC, the respected financial gurus who predicted the S and P going to 1400 this year. And people actually listen to them even though they have been wrong countless times.
Until I have another dream like this, I think I'm just going to continue to listen to Gary Kaltbaum and invest as he does.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
My Christmas Gift to You, albeit a little early, but hopefully not too late
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4 comments:
awesome. post. I was't so lucky. maybe i need this podcast afterall...
I remember you telling me about that dream. Not all of our dreams come true but it's the ones we feel WILL come true that do. I think you were on to something and totally did the right thing. If you'd hung on you would be screwed now. I was watching a guest on the Daily Show a few weeks ago saying that the up and down swings of the market--all the highest percentages of down AND up happened in 1936, during the Depression. Now the same swinging is going on, it's not a question of selling on a down or up day--it's a question should you keep your holdings in a volatile market and you trusted your instincts. The last people I would trust would be brokers!
I had a similare type of dream right after I was first pregnant. I had a vivid dream I was at a stadium with a child in a stroller and another child was running around and needed his diaper changed. I was alone and couldn't handle both of them while I changed the diaper so I had to ask a stranger to watch the child in the stroller while I changed the other one. During the dream I felt panicked at the thought of being alone with two children. I woke in a cold sweat, shaking, and told myself "it's okay, you're just panicked, you're only having ONE child, so no worries." (Obviously this was before my first ultrasound which discovered twins.)
Impulsive investors, taking actions such as you have done, will more often than not experience unfavorable results. This is a business. Would you fire your staff on Monday morning because of a dream? Of course not, so why apply that to your portfolio? Dreams are a review of the day, week or other short period of time leading up to your deep sleep. If you are listening to a podcast, clearly you were internalizing the message and dreamt of it. Too bad your husband didn't display enough discipline for the both of you. Stay out of stocks and invest in tangibles that have less emotional rides, like art or real estate.
Anonymous, I hope you have enjoyed the 50% loss in your portfolio this year. Merry Christmas!
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